Markets Reopen Amid Iran War Oil Shock — RBI MPC Begins Key April 2026 Meeting

Global Markets Reopen After Easter Break — Eyes on Iran and RBI

Monday, April 6, 2026, marks the return of full-scale financial market activity after the four-day Easter holiday break. U.S. markets — the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq — resume normal trading at 9:30 a.m. ET, while Indian exchanges, NSE and BSE, also reopen after remaining closed on Good Friday (April 3). However, UK and European markets remain shut today for Easter Monday, meaning thinner cross-Atlantic liquidity is expected early in the session.

The holiday break did nothing to cool the two dominant forces gripping global markets: the ongoing U.S.-Iran war and its stranglehold on energy markets via the Strait of Hormuz, and the critical RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting which kicks off today, April 6, with a rate decision expected on April 8.

Iran War Remains the Defining Macro Shock of 2026

The U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran, launched on February 28, 2026, has triggered what the International Energy Agency (IEA) has described as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of the world's crude oil and significant volumes of LNG normally flow — has forced Gulf producers to cut output by at least 10 million barrels per day. The U.S. and allied nations have released 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves, the largest such release on record, to provide temporary breathing room.

Crude oil prices have surged well above $100/barrel, with Brent touching the $109–$111 range in recent sessions. Analysts warn that if the Strait is not reopened by mid-April, supply losses will double — a scenario that could push Brent toward $170/barrel or higher, triggering a severe stagflationary shock for the global economy.

U.S. Stock Markets: Cautious Reopening After Holiday

U.S. stocks enter today's session on slightly improved footing. The S&P 500 staged its best single-day gain since May last Tuesday, and the broader index ended the holiday-shortened week up 3.4%. Despite this bounce, the S&P 500 remains down over 7% year-to-date, the Nasdaq is in correction territory, and the VIX has repeatedly crested the 30 mark — signalling persistent investor anxiety.

Major voices on Wall Street remain divided. Fundstrat's Mark Newton expects stocks to have begun a bottoming process but recommends patience. Siebert Financial's chief investment officer Mark Malek has stated plainly: "This is not a trading moment." Even Warren Buffett, speaking earlier this week, indicated that equities are not yet cheap enough for him to step in aggressively. With UK and European participants still on Easter holiday today, liquidity may remain thin in early U.S. trading.

RBI MPC Meeting Begins Today — Rate Decision on April 8

In a major event for Indian financial markets, the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) begins its three-day deliberation today, April 6, 2026. The rate decision — to be announced by Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Wednesday, April 8 — is the first MPC outcome of the new financial year FY2026–27 and will set the monetary policy tone for the months ahead.

The repo rate currently stands at 5.25%, following a 25 basis point cut in December 2025. The RBI has maintained a neutral monetary policy stance since then, and most market analysts do not expect a rate change at this meeting. The central bank is expected to hold rates steady and assess the impact of previous cuts, while monitoring the escalating crude oil shock on India's inflation outlook and current account.

India's Economic Backdrop: Oil Shock Threatens FY27 Outlook

India enters FY2026–27 facing a complex external environment. As a nation that imports approximately 85% of its crude oil requirements, the prolonged Iran war and Hormuz disruption pose a direct threat to macroeconomic stability. Economists warn that sustained high oil prices could shave 50–70 basis points off India's GDP growth in FY27 and push headline inflation higher by 55–60 basis points for every $10 per barrel increase in crude.

The Indian rupee has already touched record lows near ₹93.6–94.4 against the U.S. dollar, and the current account deficit is projected to widen from 1% of GDP in FY26 to approximately 1.7% in FY27. FII outflows of around ₹1.6–1.8 lakh crore in FY26 — the highest on record — add further pressure.

On a positive note, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and strong retail participation have provided a partial cushion, and the Nifty 50 managed two consecutive sessions of gains to kick off FY27. Analysts maintain a recovery target of 27,500 for the Nifty, contingent on holding support near 21,750 and a normalisation of crude prices.

What to Watch This Week

The week of April 6–10, 2026 is packed with catalysts. The RBI's rate announcement on April 8 will be closely watched for any shift in tone regarding inflation risks from the oil shock. On the global front, diplomatic developments around the Strait of Hormuz will be the decisive variable — any credible de-escalation signal could trigger a sharp relief rally in equities and a pullback in crude.

Meanwhile, Coinbase's conditional approval from the U.S. OCC to operate as a trust bank is a key development in crypto-finance convergence worth monitoring. On the M&A front, the RIA advisory space continues to see record valuations, with deals hitting a median 11.6x EBITDA in 2025.

For investors across both Indian and global markets, the message remains the same: manage risk, watch energy prices, and wait for clarity on the Hormuz situation before making aggressive directional bets.